1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 {14} 15 16 Offer
TIME
CYCLES: The Interplay of Cycles within Cycles
The key to
trading with cycles is an understanding of the interplay of cycles within
cycles.
|
Almost
all tarding cycles have a 1/2 trading cycle (see folloiwng illustration).
A 20-day (bar) trading cycle has within it two 10-day (bar) cycles.
One 10-day cycle begins as the 20-day cycle egins and bottoms halfway
into the 20-day cycle. As the first 10-day cycle ends the second
10-day cycle begins, and it ends as the 20-day cycle bottoms. Therefore,
a 20-day trading cycle always begins and ends with a 10-day cycle. |
|
Right
Translation Bull Market
In bull markets showing right translation, the top of the 20-day
cycle is most often the top of the second 10-day cycle. Right translation
shows in the time periods for bottoms and tops of the trading cycle.
On average the move from bottom to top will be three weeks, and
the move from top to bottom, one week. Knowing this makes it easier
to hold a long position through the decline into the bottom of the
first 10-day cycle, or even add on to the long position, expecting
to take profits as the second 10-day cycle tops, often with a mechanical
sell signal.
|
|
|
|
Left
Translation Bear Market
In a bear market with left translation the top of the 20-day cycle
is most often made as the first 10-day cycle tops. Left translation
shows in the time periods for bottoms and tops of the trading cycle.
On average the move from bottom to top will be one week, and the
move from top to bottom, three weeks. Knowing this can give you
the confidence to hold a short position through the rise into the
high of the second 10-day cycle, or add on to the short position
expecting to take profits as the 20-day and 10-day cycles bottom
with a mechanical buy signal. |
Cycles are
the only technical tools that allow for reasonably accurate forecasting of
future tops and bottoms. The cycles used in our analysis are as long as
4 years for the Stock Market, and as short-term as minutes or ticks for
intraday trading. |